Future Summit Blog

Chinggis Khaanonomics – steepe-ing out in Mongolia

Oct
16

This is a guest post from Tim Harcourt, Chief Economist of the Australian Trade Commision (Austrade). As chief economist Tim analyses the global economy to help Australian exporters and helps Austrade devise its own international business strategies. Tim is also a Future Summit Australian Leadership Awardee and guest blogger hear at the Future Summit blog. This is an extract from his latest post at the Austrade website. You can see the full post there.

Who invented free trade? Was it the British Economist David Ricardo (whose masterful explanation of the principles of comparative advantage has become a text book favourite for economic students ever since)? Well, Ricardo may have advocated free trade in theory but its origins in practice come from a more unlikely historical source. On a recent trip to Mongolia, the airport economist learnt that it was in fact the famous Mongolian war load Chinggis Khaan, who can in some way, claim to be the father of free trade.

Thanks to bajes for the photo

Thanks to baje's for the photo

In fact, Chinggis Khaan (popularly known in the west as Genghis Khan thanks to a faulty translation) was the father of many things and many people – around one quarter of Mongolians claim to be a descendant - so old Chinggis must have been a busy boy when we wasn’t fighting and conquering his neighbours. In fact, the whole historical legacy of Chinggis Khaan is fascinating. Whilst in Ulaan Bataar, the airport economist learned that Khaan first developed the principle of free trade when he abolished tariffs between the provinces of the Mongol empire. He also developed the world’s first ever passports (for all those travelling in his vast empire that stretched all the way from China to Europe) and the world’s first postal service whilst basically conquering the world in his spare time.

Photo: Ken_Mayer

Photo: Ken_Mayer

But what about modern Mongolia? It was of course a communist state from the 1920s to the 1990s, with a lot of Russian influence (and suspicion about Beijing). They went through a difficult period after the fall of communism as did many former Soviet influenced states with mass unemployment and a breakdown in instutions. But the times in Mongolia may be a-changing.

In fact, The airport economist happened to be in UB at an important historical moment in modern Mongolian economic history. Whilst in the country, Ivanhoe resources – of which Rio Tinto has a strategic stake – announced its agreement with the Mongolian government to develop copper and gold deposits in Oyu  tolgoi. The agreement, which was 7 years in the making, is expected to have a major impact on Mongolia’s future economic prospects. According to Chad Blewitt, Ivanhoe’s chief financial officer (on secondment from Rio Tinto), the project will “double Mongolia’s GDP of $US 5 billion and the mine deposit will become one of the 5th largest mines in the world.” Blewitt believes “this place could be like Dubai in 5 years time, but they’ve got to manage the revenues and ensure that they have the right skill mix in the labour market to make it all happen.”

You can read the full post at http://www.austrade.gov.au/Chinggis-Khaanonomics-steepe-ing-out-in-Mongolia/default.aspx

Where is the Australian economy really at?

Oct
09

It’s been interesting to watch the news the past few days and hear the talk about how the Australian economy as suddenly gone from feeling the long-term effects of a recession to a buyount economy within the space of a few days. It’s always tough to judge between the varying advice and reports. Safe to say, no one is really 100% of what to make of the economy just yet, but the following post by Steve Keen is a great place to start thinking about things in the right way.

by @gapingvoid

by @gapingvoid

Do yourself a favor and give it a read. It can be found at the link below.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/10/06/rba-gets-it-wrong-again/

Inside Google Wave: it’s time to learn how to surf

Oct
01

This post was originally posted by Ross Hill, a Future Summit 2009 attendee, on his personal blog. He is the founder of Yabble, Coverhunt and The Hive whilst also being on staff at Deloitte in their Innovation division. He can be found online at www.rosshill.com.au and on twitter at www.twitter.com/rosshill.

When Google asks a question like “What if email was invented today?” it’s hard not to be interested in the answer – that is exactly what the Rasmussen brothers did after they had finished with Maps.

wave Inside Google Wave: its time to learn how to surf

It was exciting to join the collective consciousness on Twitter 4 years ago and there hasn’t really been a next big thing to play with, until Wave. Google are releasing more accounts at the moment and will no doubt scale this up towards the end of the year. It is still very early days for the Wave team but they already have some very impressive stories together.

What is Wave?

The 80 minute answer to this question is available as a video on Youtube. But if you don’t have 80 minutes, the short answer is that there are three parts:

  • The “Google Wave” product is the website application you see in all the pictures. At first, this is what most people will be referring to because it is Google’s main client to access Waves.
  • Wave is a platform with APIs that let developers build their own extensions to interact with Waves, like gadgets and robots.
  • Wave is the collection of foundation protocols that make it all happen in the machine. It’s anextended version of the XMPP protocol (and more).

wave-app Inside Google Wave: its time to learn how to surf

What have I been doing with Wave?

I started playing when I got my preview account in July. The first thing I noticed was that ‘realtime’ might sound simple but what it leads to takes a while to get used to. Everything happens very quickly! Even with a small group of users you soon realise that you can’t keep up with all of the motion around you.

Steve Hopkins and I interviewed Karim Temsamani, Managing Director of Google AU/NZ, at the 2009 Australian Leadership Retreat in August (watch the interview below). This was a great chance to ask about the structure of Google and how that varies to other companies, and also of course to find out some early details about how they are thinking about Wave. Over that week Steve and I were using my Wave account to manage our interview schedule and also to collaborate on emails that we needed to send out – the benefits of doing this in realtime instead of using a wiki or other asynchronous tools were obvious. We just needed more people on board already!

ALR Interview: Karim Temsamani from Future Summit on Vimeo.

In the Innovation Program at Deloitte Australia we have been using Wave quite a bit over the past few weeks for a range of things. The most powerful example so far has been for producing collaborative meeting notes during conference calls split across a few cities. This is a very powerful way to make sure everyone is on the same page since you can see the notes appear in front of you and make changes instantly. When the meeting finishes you have the final version and there is no need for the usual polishing because somebody in the group has already taken care of that during the meeting.

This week I have been starting to consider in more detail what’s possible with Robots. Lots.

What makes Google Wave so interesting?

The themes that are emerging here are really exciting – here is what I have been thinking about:

Realtime – When everything can happen at once you can turn many serial tasks into parallel tasks. The productivity you gain here is enormous because there are less hurdles in the process.

State – When updates move to realtime there is no saving files, there is no juggling different versions of the same file between colleagues, and if your client crashes you don’t lose anything. This saves an extraordinary amount of time.

Connectedness – we’re increasingly more connected and Wave pushes us a little further along that path. I’ll talk about this in another post sometime.

Parallel – In most social situations and even with instant messaging most of the time you only have one individual talking at any time, but with Wave even though you might have one person talking you can all be editing the document at once.

Culture – The technology is only ever a small part of a change process, particularly in the enterprise. Not every company is ready to make the leap to this style of communications tool. For those who do, 20% of the focus will be on the technology and 80% on the culture the people share.

Etiquette – more complex etiquette is forming as new social situations arise. For example, it is considered very rude for you to edit my sentence as I’m typing it.

Overload – As more data feeds are connected to the Waves many people will experience overload and anxiety. This will create it’s own problems, and solutions.

Filter – How do we keep up with everything happening in realtime? We don’t, so we will have to learn how to search and filter in a very effective fashion to make sure we are a part of what we need to be.

Attribution – Things are happening too quickly to stop and worry about who made which changes (although you can rewind and see them if you need to). You create documents as a group and the authorship seems to more naturally belong to the group.

Federation – The Google Wave Federation Protocol means that developers can build their own clients to access the system, and that companies can maintain their own secure servers ‘behind the firewall’ if required. This scale Wave really nicely and reduce the barriers in the enterprise market.

Collective – Like social media, as another tool that connects us to each other more Wave is changing the way organisations operate together. As we become more connected to each other in a group we can share information and adapt to anything that happens much faster and more effectively. Those that do this best will see massive performance gains in the market simply because they can do a better job.

Robots – These are programs that conceptually act as humans in the Wave conversation. It’s hard to grasp where this goes but it’s going to be the really, really cool piece.. keep and eye out in this space.

Verdict so far: People are going to learn to surf, or they’re going to drown under the tides of realtime information!

Money talks to change the climate, or does it?

Sep
22

This post was contributed to the Future Summit blog by Simon Divecha, a Future Summit Australian Leadership Awardee. He is the Director of Green Mode and a keen climate change advocate. He can be found online at http://www.greenmode.com.au/ and on twitter at www.twitter.com/simondivecha

In the world of hard climate science, carbon pricing schemes and emissions targets you could be forgiven for thinking that human attitudes are rather unimportant. It sometimes appears that all we have to do is set a carbon price and everything else will follow.

It’s not that simple of course, despite the current difficulties focusing on cap and trade, carbon pollution reduction schemes or carbon taxes and caps.

Nicholas Stern, the ex Chief Economist of the World Bank and author of the UK government’s seminal Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change highlights the issues by placing action, beyond carbon pricing, front and centre. He emphasises:

Three elements of policy for [carbon] mitigation are essential: a carbon price, technology policy, and the removal of barriers to behavioural change. Stern Review p.xxviii

And:

Behaviour is driven by a number of factors, not just financial costs and benefits Stern Review p.378

Yet worldwide we’re struggling to develop this focus. The humble light bulb is a great illustration.

Look around you. In nearly any country you will see incandescent light bulbs or halogen down lights. If you leave these lights in the sockets unchanged it is similar to walking past a $50 note on the pavement and not picking it up.

The improvements can be dramatic – Factor Ten (that is, a ten-fold improvement in the use of energy and resources.) This can mean a 90 percent cut in your business or personal costs and its possible to achieve it today - possibly saving ourselves $9 out of every ten dollars.

The picture shows one example – LED downlights. Available for between about AUD 10 and 20 dollars per light, the lights use 2 to 3 watts each. A normal downlight would use 50 watts.

These lights will pay for themselves

These lights will pay for themselves

The lights shown in the picture will pay for themselves within 6 months. After this, it’s money in the bank. In addition they should last many times longer than an ordinary 50 watt halogen downlight. saving you or your business the time and cost of replacing ordinary bulbs.

But, for the last two decades while effective alternatives like compact fluorescent light bulbs have been available many people have, metaphorically, continued to walk past the $50 note. So we have to ask ourselves; to what extent are we motivated by money for saving power and the associated greenhouse gasses?

Of course the answer to climate change is not just about light – although the International Energy Agency finds we could cut global electricity consumption by almost 10% with similar changes. Nor is it (only) about changing light bulb jokes…. But it is a great illustration of profitable and meaningful change that delivers economic and environmental carbon advantages there for the taking.

It’s also an illustration of why we need to do more than just put a price on carbon. And why understanding individual perspectives and subjective worldviews are essential for addressing pressing global concerns like climate change.

As a start, and if you are unconvinced, have a look at the following prioritised list from Donella Meadows. The list categorises actions that impact a business in order of effectiveness - 9 being the least effective (and most commonly used):

9. Numbers - e.g. a carbon appraisal or setting internal reporting standards. Knowing what Carbon Pricing will do to supply chain costs.

8. Material stocks and flows. - e.g. tracking the flow of a material across business.

7. Regulating negative feedback loops. - e.g. internal and external audit.

6. Driving positive feedback loops - the more it works the more it gains power to work some more.

5. Information flows - e.g. peoples personal understanding and stories about products that are creating change.

4. The rules of the system (incentives, punishment, constraints).

3. The power of self-organization - e.g. a group creates/demonstrates a new response.

2. The goals of the business - is there / are there an overarching goal for the company?

1. The mindset or paradigm out of which the goals, rules, feedback structure arise. A shared ideal, changing an organisational culture.

For many, who agree with part or all of such a list, this is also about finding a Carbon Advantage. It’s far easier to do such a thing, find the opportunities from climate change, when many others around you are helping. And a lot of this advantage is with people’s attitudes, customer, staff and stakeholder views as much as it is in the future pricing signals, essential as such signals are.

Which takes us back to Nick Stern. Action on climate change and, by extension to find your carbon advantages, is about more than just pricing and numbers.

Korea’s crisis response and the global climate

Jul
29

This post was contributed to the Future Summit blog by Simon Divecha, a Future Summit Australian Leadership Awardee, who recently visited Korea with the Australia Korea Foundation’s Next Generation Leaders Program (NGLP). What he has found is fascinating and provides a great portrait into what we can be doing in this ‘green economy.’

When we’re looking to the future Rahm Emanuel’s quote, never waste a serious crisis, keeps coming up. Over the last six months it’s been pushed heavily, particularly linking the global financial crisis to climate change action. Ex World Bank Chief Economist, Nicholas Stern, for example argues a significant part of financial stimulus should be directed toward green investment. So is it? And what’s significant?

When it comes to green investment it’s hard to go past current events in South Korea. Last year, at the 60th anniversary of South Korea’s independence, President Lee announced a new paradigm for the country – green growth. Translating words into action the country’s global financial crisis stimulus package of $38.5 billion USD is all focused on clean technology and environmental expenditure. The Korean Presidential Committee on Green Growth says it will deliver 956,000 new green jobs. The four year package is about 2.6% of Korea’s yearly gross domestic product. Funding goes to rivers, forests, clean transport and bikeways and, green homes and neighbourhoods.

At the same time this strategy is driving private investment. Samsung has just announced over 4 billion dollars of investment to green its electronics. It will cut the greenhouse gas embodied in its products by 50%. Once past the factory gate goods also use power and, Samsung says, its TVs, refrigerators and air conditioners will be the most efficient (lowest power use) products available. A month before this, JP Morgan announced it is raising $1 billion to invest in Korean solar, LEDs (high efficiency lighting) and green cars.

Renewable and very efficient energy projects also feature. A Korean stationary hydrogen fuel cell producing heat & electricity for 3000 homes is complete and should be commercially available next year. The plant uses 80% of the available energy from gas for a current cost of about AUD 0.23 per unit (the price of gas in Korea forming 50% of this cost). And the world’s largest tidal power plant can be found in Sihwa. It will deliver power at approximately half the cost of wind power. Hydrogen and tidal power plant pictures and detail are here. Cost comparisons here.

According to HSBC, the global stimulus funding directed at climate change is 436 billion US dollars. While Korea’s focus (about 80% of it climate related and the remainder on environmental initiative) is probably the greenest, globally nearly sixteen percent of economic stimulus expenditure goes on climate. In Australia this figure is just over nine percent, China it’s nearly thirty eight percent and in the USA it’s close to twelve percent.

So have the other countries missed the boat?

The crises that arise in the future from our greenhouse emissions will be with us for a long time even if all such emissions were to stop today. This implies we will find ourselves working to restore and revitalise the environment and the economic and social values that flow from such recovery.

There’s a stand out example of such action in Korea - the restoration of Cheong gye cheon – a project that converted 5.8kms of freeway through the heart of Seoul back to a river. Aptly titled Back to A future, this video tells the story.

For Australia with greenhouse gas emissions per person more than twice as high as Korea (a level South Australia’s Premier Mike Rann agrees puts us in the carbon obese category) we are also, perversely, in a strong position to lead. This is because answering climate change is as much about knowledge and adaptability as technological leadership. While the projected renewable energy growth in this country offers undeniable opportunities, ensuring effective change means more than just technology.

For example, much of the content for this blog came from my recent visit to Korea with the Australia Korea Foundation’s Next Generation Leaders Program (NGLP). Knowledge and expertise is highly valued – the NGLP group found ourselves writing advice for Korea’s president on the last day of our visit. In doing so we could draw on our own diversity, the group of 11 included at least 7 different country backgrounds or heritages and came with a depth of experience across the business, academia, government and non-government sectors. Such a mix, working to find solutions that are greater than the sum of the individuals involved, is something to be valued. Multiply this across Australia’s inherent multi-culturalisim, political growth and, struggles to answer challenges and maybe we’re starting to define a wealth of expertise that forms a significant competitive advantage.

We would do well to make the most this. In partnership with standout green technology and knowledge - as is occurring on commercial scales in South Korea - it has the promise to be a fascinating, productive and valuable mix.

Quick facts

South Korea

Population 48.5 million (2009)

GDP 1,280 billion USD (2008)

CO2-e per capita 11.1 tonnes per person (2000)

Australia

Population 21.3 million (2009)

GDP 800 billion USD (2008)

CO2-e per capita 30.3 tonnes per person (2005)

Thoughts from the remote participants of Future Summit

May
27

What follows is a guest post from Andrew Blanda, which he initially posted on his own blog. Andrew followed along with what was happening at Future Summit by engaging with those twitter users who were present at the actual event. I found he’s debrief below illuminating when considering the future of events and how this discourse can live within those not physically present at the event.  

May 20, 2009

Yesterday, I was a remote participant in the Future Summit held in Melbourne on 18th & 19th May 2009. I participated through Twitter, by interacting with attendees at the event, responding to questions & posting comments to various twitterers attending the various sessions on the program.

To me, it felt like I received a condensed, highly concentrated (as in I received the core nuggets of each presentation as it happened) presentation without the fluff. Do I feel like I participated? Absolutely yes! Through posing questions to the attendees and having questions and comments retweeted helped me better understand what was being presented and also to get a feel for the mood of the audience.

Things I liked:

  • I got a good feel for what was presented
  • I could ask questions
  • I threw in some of my own comments (which were commented on by others)
  • I had a number of my posts re-tweeted to a wider audience
  • I picked up a number of new followers (which seems to be the holy grail of Twitter [to some people!])
  • Having the Twitter back-channel provide on-the-spot comments from the sessions

Things I missed:

  • The ‘hubbub’ that occurs in audiences when something contentious, alarming or incorrect is mentioned
  • The camaraderie of the audience who shared some of my thoughts/comments – it would have been great to be there and interact with others

Things I inferred/picked up from the comments being made by the attendees:

  • For one of the sessions, the panel kept asking/answering their own questions, not allowing the session to be participative!
  • From the tweet messages, the wrap-up from Julie Bishop seemed to lose the audience and not really achieving it’s intention (of bringing everything together to a close)
  • There seemed to be no actions/action plan we could see/walk away with
  • Ultimately, I felt like I had been participated in this event, probably more due to the retweeting and interactions with other tweeters.I may even have opened up a can of worms with this comment I made:

It sure is a waste gathering people together to hear the panel talk amongst themselves! Save the CO2 and webcast it 

Who’s to know that next time they don’t just have it as a webcast, or a combination of webcast & live sessions – Twitter certainly helped me get a feel for things in real time!

I’d like to thank @SamMutimer, @mspecht, @kcarruthers, @geehall1, @amoyal, @nathanhulls + others for all retweeting my posts/asking questions! 

A final thought on Andrews post. We will be endevouring to stream some parts of the Summit live next year, pending how feasibile this is.

Your questions answered

May
26

During Future Summit, we asked a number of questions for you of different folks that we’re walking around. Here is our first post back with these answers. Below, find answers to the questions you had for Chief Economist of Austrade (And Airport Economist) Tim Harcourt.

Ask a question of a Chief Economist, a CEO or a former Vice President

May
15

Next week at Future Summit we will be interviewing Chief Economist of AusTrade Tim Harcourt, CEO of Deloitte Digital Pete Williams and former Vice President of Uganda, H.E. Dr. Speciosa Wandira and we will be asking your questions!

Simply leave a question in the comments below and we will upload the video interview when we complete at Future Summit.

So who exactly are we (you!) interviewing?

H.E. Dr. Speciosa Wandira

 

Dr. Wandira served as Uganda’s Vice President from 1994 until 2003. When she was elected, she became the first and only woman in Africa to hold such a position. Since then, a great deal of her time and energy goes into advocating for affirmative action for women and other marginalized groups, including the elderly and disabled. She points out: “My mission is to see the emancipation of rural women through functional skills development and access to micro-financing to ensure internally generated improvement.” She currently serves on the board of The Hunger Project for Women, which you can read more about on the blog or their twitter.

Tim Harcourt

Tim Harcourt is the chief economist of the Australian Trade Commission (Austrade). As chief economist Tim analyses the global economy to help Australian exporters and helps Austrade devise its own international business strategies. A prolific author and globetrotter, Tim has visited over 40 countries in the past four years alone. He is also the author of the best-selling business book The Airport Economist.  Tim is also on twitter.

Pete Williams

Pete is CEO of Deloitte Digital, which is a new business that delivers professional services online.  Prior to his role in Deloitte Digital, Pete was CEO of Australia’s largest web development firm, Eclipse. He is recognised as a global thought leader on Innovation and Use of Web technologies.  A Chartered Accountant by background Pete moved into the Web space in 1993.  He has a unique perspective on how business can profit from using web technology.  Pete blogs and tweets and is heavily involved in the effort to rebuild Flowerdale after the black Sunday fires.

Leave us a comment below to ask a question and we’ll ask it of the relevant person above.

Are you coming to Future Summit?

May
14

I everyone. Just a quick one today. There has been a heap of great conversation taking place on twitter which is making us all very excited here at Future Summit HQ for the big event on Monday.

If you are coming along to Future Summit on Monday and Tuesday, we would love hear from you. If you could post a comment below with your blog link and/or twitter account so that people not lucky enough to be attending this year can follow along with your stuff as the Summit progresses. I’ll comment below so you can see what I’m talking about.

Thanks everyone! Looking forward to the big event soon.

Twitter dream team coming to Future Summit

May
13

We have been very lucky this year to have the presence of some of the most influential twitter users in Australia assemble at Future Summit early next week. We also are very excited to announce that the largest twitter-er in Australia, Darren Rowse from www.problogger.net will be Guest Tweeting for our very own www.twitter.com/futuresummit account!

If you follow us at www.twitter.com/futuresummit you will be able to follow along as Darren shares his thoughts about the Monday sessions with you. You will also be able to ask questions of the speakers through Darren and the other twitter users replying to the @futuresummit account.

So who are the these influential twitter users who are coming along?

Darren Rowse
Company/Website: Problogger
WHO?: Probably the most notable and famous of Australian’s bloggers.
WHERE: http://twitter.com/problogger

John Johnston
Company/Website Jjprojects
WHO?: Social Media Manager, Global Team at Earth Hour
HERE: http://twitter.com/jjprojects

Bronwen Clune
Company/Website: Norg
WHO?: Bronwen is the founder and CEO of www.norg.com.au and is a media guru.
WHERE: http://twitter.com/bronwen

Michael Specht
Company/Website www.inspecht.com.au
WHO?: HR Technology, Recruiting & Enterprise 2.0 Consultant
HERE: http://twitter.com/mspecht

Markus Hafner (Eskimo_Sparky)
Company/Website: Happener.com
WHO?: Online Recruiter & business grower
HERE: http://twitter.com/eskimo_sparky

Ross Hill
Company/Website: Yabble / Deloitte Digital / The Hive Co-Founder
WHO?: internet entrepreneur and general social media expert.
HERE: http://twitter.com/rosshill

Duncan Riley
Company/Website: Inquisitr
WHO?: Editor, The Inquisitr, CEO Nichenet.
HERE: http://twitter.com/duncanriley

Kate Carruthers
Company/Website: Digital Business Group Pty Ltd
WHO?: Kate is a respected online collaboration, social computing, digital media consultant who knows her stuff.
WHERE: http://twitter.com/kcarruthers

Mick Liubinskas
Company/Website: www.pollenizer.com
WHO?: Mick is a web business engineer who makes web products happen.
WHERE: http://twitter.com/liubinskas

It will be great fun to spend some time with these folks in Melbourne this weekend, something I’m personally really looking forward to. They will all be tweeting from Future Summit through-out the two day, which you can follow along on search.twitter.com. If you’re on twitter, let us know below what your user name is and we’ll follow you. :)

P.S Thanks to my friend www.twitter.com/lucio_ribeiro for some of the the text above. His descriptions of some of the folk above we’re so good I decided to borrow them again!

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Governor-General of the Commonwealth of Australia

Executive Chairman
Michael J Roux

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